Who Should I Start?

How our start/sit verdicts work

Every verdict combines six weighted factors: the week's projection (40%), form over the last three games (15%), opportunity share (15%), the defensive matchup (15%), injury status (10%) and Vegas game script (5%). When a factor has no data — a bye week, an unpublished projection — it is excluded and the remaining weights are redistributed, rather than being scored as neutral. Confidence tops out at 95: no model should claim certainty about a football game.